NEW POLL CONFIRMS GOP LEAD – AT 7:33 P.M. ET:  We've been cautious about accepting the findings of a late Rasmussen poll showing Republicans 10 points ahead in the generic congressional preference race.  Now, though, A Fox Dynamics poll is saying the same thing:

With less than 100 days until the midterm elections, American voters would give the edge to Republicans by an 11 percentage-point margin if the Congressional election were today. Yet a majority doesn't think a Republican takeover of Congress would lead to positive change.

A Fox News poll released Thursday finds that if Americans were heading to the voting booth today, they would back the Republican candidate in their district over the Democrat by 47-36 percent. Two weeks ago the Republicans had a slimmer 4-point advantage (41-37 percent).

As has been the case all year, Republicans continue to be more interested in the upcoming election. Thirty-six percent of Republicans are "extremely" interested compared to 23 percent of Democrats.

COMMENT:  That enthusiasm gap is also important, and also helps Republicans.  As to the finding that most respondents don't think a Republican takeover will lead to positive change, that's a matter of real concern.  As we've reported here before, Republicans are gaining from poor Democratic performance.  The GOP isn't all that popular.  The party has got to work on that problem, and actually govern well (surprise) if elected.  The worst thing would be for Republicans to take over Congress, mess things up, and hand Obama a victory in 2012.

July 29, 2010